Applying Grey System Theory to Forecast The Total Value of Importsand Exports of Top Traded Commodities in Taiwan

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Thanh-Tuyen Tran, Applying Grey System Theory to Forecast The Total Value of Importsand Exports of Top Traded Commodities in Taiwan, Int. J. Anal. Appl., 17 (2) (2019), 282-302.

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Thanh-Tuyen Tran

Abstract

Export contributes to a large extent to economic growth of an island-type economylikeTaiwan. The scientific forecasting on the total value of imports and exports of top traded commodities in Taiwan are needed as the essential inputs to determine whether new top traded commodities should be imported or exported, and to make right decision toward activities in various functional areas such as building new container terminals, operation plans, marketing strategies, as well as finance and accounting [1]. Taking the original data of the amount of import and export commodity during the years from 2007 to 2013, the author tries to establish a mathematical model of Grey forecasting to make a prediction of the total value of imports and exports of top commodities in Taiwan for the next 05 coming years from 2014 to 2018.The analysis results show that the usage of Grey forecasting models resulted in a very low mean absolute percentage error, which demonstrate its applicability in practice to provide accurate forecasts. This research also indicates that for the future period of time (2014-2017), there will be a steady increase in both exports and imports value of all top commodities. The current study may offer a good idea for the control and scheduling for the terminal operators in decision making and planning.

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