Practical Aspects for Applying Picard Iterations to the SIR Model Using Actual Data

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I. K. Youssef, M. Khalifa Saad, Ali Dumlu, Somia A. Asklany


The updated version of the Picard method for solving systems of differential equations is employed to solve the SIR system. A local performance of the Picard iteration algorithm combined with the Gauss-Seidel approach is applied to the SIR model. The integral form of the SIR model, in addition to the use of Gauss-Seidel philosophy (using the most recent calculated values), achieved more accuracy in the computational work than those obtained using the differential forms. Documented data regarding the spread of corona virus 19 in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia region from April to the end of December 2020 were used to calculate the corresponding actual values for the parameters and the initial conditions. Due to efficient management and to obtain representable behaviours, we restricted the size of the study to only 1% of the population. The global characteristics of the integral formulation have affected the calculations accurately. The initial conditions and the model’s parameters are established depending on the documented data. The results illustrate the superiority of the updated Picard formulation over the classical Picard within their domain of convergence. The results of this study illuminate and validate the importance of mathematical modeling. These findings can provide valuable insights into mathematical modeling for those involved in environmental health research, especially those responsible for devising strategic plans.

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